PreprintCC BYmedRxiv
Temporal and Phylodynamic analyses of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
- 1Institut National de Recherche Biomedicale
Abstract
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing a major outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Orthoebolavirus bundibugyoense (Bundibugyo virus), which was declared on May 15, 2026. To investigate the timing of emergence and early transmission, we generated near full-length Bundibugyo virus genomes from 686 PCR-confirmed individuals across 22 health zones. We estimated the time of emergence as late February 2026 (95% highest posterior density interval [HPDI]: January 21-March 25, 2026) and an evolutionary rate of 8.7x10-4 substitutions per site per year (95% HPDI: 7.6-9.9x10-4), with no evidence of mutations associated with rapidly growing lineages.
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BibTeX
@misc{wawinabokalanga2026temporal,
title = {{Temporal and Phylodynamic analyses of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo}},
author = {T. Wawina-Bokalanga and P. Akilimali and J. Pekar and P. Adroba and A. Amuri-Aziza and E. Kinganda Lusamaki and D. Jansen and B. Gutierrez and C. Judge and O. Ntumba-Tshitenge and J. Quick and D. Amadou Mouctar and S. A. Wilkinson and J.-C. Makangara-Cigolo and M. Lola-Loway and J. O. OTSHUDIEMA and N. Gumede and F. Mulangu and J. Nsio and P. Akil-Bandali and J. Yango and D. M. Ebengo and T. B. Tshitenge and C. Kacita and J. Ngalula-Mudiayi and M. Mossoko and P.-C. Musuamba-Kayembe and L. Tibasima-Dhesa and P. Paku-Tshambu and S. Mulangu and P. Z. KABUTU and O. Tshiani-Mbaya and D. Mvumbi Makaba and M.-R. Belizaire and A. W. Rimoin and L. Subissi and M. Peeters},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.64898/2026.10.07.26365001},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.07.26365001v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Temporal and Phylodynamic analyses of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
AU - T. Wawina-Bokalanga
AU - P. Akilimali
AU - J. Pekar
AU - P. Adroba
AU - A. Amuri-Aziza
AU - E. Kinganda Lusamaki
AU - D. Jansen
AU - B. Gutierrez
AU - C. Judge
AU - O. Ntumba-Tshitenge
AU - J. Quick
AU - D. Amadou Mouctar
AU - S. A. Wilkinson
AU - J.-C. Makangara-Cigolo
AU - M. Lola-Loway
AU - J. O. OTSHUDIEMA
AU - N. Gumede
AU - F. Mulangu
AU - J. Nsio
AU - P. Akil-Bandali
AU - J. Yango
AU - D. M. Ebengo
AU - T. B. Tshitenge
AU - C. Kacita
AU - J. Ngalula-Mudiayi
AU - M. Mossoko
AU - P.-C. Musuamba-Kayembe
AU - L. Tibasima-Dhesa
AU - P. Paku-Tshambu
AU - S. Mulangu
AU - P. Z. KABUTU
AU - O. Tshiani-Mbaya
AU - D. Mvumbi Makaba
AU - M.-R. Belizaire
AU - A. W. Rimoin
AU - L. Subissi
AU - M. Peeters
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/07
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.10.07.26365001
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.07.26365001v1
AB - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is experiencing a major outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Orthoebolavirus bundibugyoense (Bundibugyo virus), which was declared on May 15, 2026. To investigate the timing of emergence and early transmission, we generated near full-length Bundibugyo virus genomes from 686 PCR-confirmed individuals across 22 health zones. We estimated the time of emergence as late February 2026 (95% highest posterior density interval [HPDI]: January 21-March 25, 2026) and an evolutionary rate of 8.7x10-4 substitutions per site per year (95% HPDI: 7.6-9.9x10-4), with no evidence of mutations associated with rapidly growing lineages.
ER -