A Counterfactual Framework for Estimating Infectious Disease Prevalence under Repeated Testing with Symptomatic and Contact-Tracing Components
Abstract
This paper addresses the problem of estimating infectious disease prevalence under longitudinal testing programs that include scheduled, symptomatic, and contact-tracing testing. Our study is motivated by data from The Ohio State University, where a mandatory once-per-week COVID-19 testing and isolation program was implemented during the Fall 2020 semester, supplemented by additional testing for symptomatic individuals and identified contacts. In this setting, the probability of being tested depends on symptoms or contact-tracing status, creating a complex observation process. We develop a counterfactual framework that links the observation process to a hypothetical process in which infection is prevented. This formulation enables unbiased estimation of disease prevalence by modeling the testing process, possibly nonparametrically, without requiring explicit modeling of transmission dynamics, even though the testing and infection processes are jointly dependent.
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BibTeX
@misc{lee2026counterfactual,
title = {{A Counterfactual Framework for Estimating Infectious Disease Prevalence under Repeated Testing with Symptomatic and Contact-Tracing Components}},
author = {Jeongjin Lee and Junke Yang and Grzegorz A. Rempala and Patrick M. Schnell},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.09389},
eprint = {2609.09389},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09389},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A Counterfactual Framework for Estimating Infectious Disease Prevalence under Repeated Testing with Symptomatic and Contact-Tracing Components
AU - Jeongjin Lee
AU - Junke Yang
AU - Grzegorz A. Rempala
AU - Patrick M. Schnell
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/08
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.09389
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.09389
AB - This paper addresses the problem of estimating infectious disease prevalence under longitudinal testing programs that include scheduled, symptomatic, and contact-tracing testing. Our study is motivated by data from The Ohio State University, where a mandatory once-per-week COVID-19 testing and isolation program was implemented during the Fall 2020 semester, supplemented by additional testing for symptomatic individuals and identified contacts. In this setting, the probability of being tested depends on symptoms or contact-tracing status, creating a complex observation process. We develop a counterfactual framework that links the observation process to a hypothetical process in which infection is prevented. This formulation enables unbiased estimation of disease prevalence by modeling the testing process, possibly nonparametrically, without requiring explicit modeling of transmission dynamics, even though the testing and infection processes are jointly dependent.
ER -