Peer-reviewedCC BYNature
Obesity rise plateaus in developed nations and accelerates in developing nations
40 affiliations
- 1Imperial College London, London, UK
- 2Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
- 3World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- 4University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
- 5Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
- 6Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA
- 7University of Essex, Colchester, UK
- 8Copenhagen University Hospital — Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg, Copenhagen, Denmark
- 9Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- 10University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- 11University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
- 12University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
- 13Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición, Mexico City, Mexico
- 14Madras Diabetes Research Foundation, Chennai, India
- 15The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
- 16The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- 17Ministry of Health, Victoria, Seychelles
- 18Unisanté, Lausanne, Switzerland
- 19Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- 20Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- 21National Institute of Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- 22RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin, Ireland
- 23National Institutes of Biomedical Innovation, Health and Nutrition, Osaka, Japan
- 24African Population and Health Research Center, Nairobi, Kenya
- 25Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- 26University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
- 27Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
- 28University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
- 29ICMR — National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad, India
- 30University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- 31National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
- 32University of Yaoundé 1, Yaoundé, Cameroon
- 33University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- 34Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
- 35University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- 36Public Health Promotion and Development Organization, Kathmandu, Nepal
- 37Peking University, Beijing, China
- 38Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- 39The University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica
- 40Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social, San José, Costa Rica
Abstract
and lacks a granular and systematic analysis of its dynamics. We used 4,050 population-based studies with measured height and weight data on 232 million participants to assess the worldwide dynamics of obesity from 1980 to 2024. The rise in obesity decelerated in school-aged children and adolescents throughout the 1990s in many high-income countries, and subsequently plateaued in most at age-standardized prevalences spanning 20 percentage points, from 3-4% for girls in Japan, Denmark and France to 23% for boys in the USA. There were indications of a small decline in obesity in children and adolescents in some high-income western countries (for example, Italy, Portugal and France) since the 2000s. Similar trends were seen in some countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In adults, the rise in obesity slowed down in high-income western countries about a decade after children, followed by a plateau or possibly a small reversal of the rise in some countries (for example, Spain). In most low-income and middle-income countries, the annual absolute change in prevalence has remained stable or increased over time, even though prevalence has surpassed that of high-income countries. These highly varied dynamics suggest that the social, economic and technological trends that influence the availability, affordability and use of different foods may have helped control the rise in obesity in high-income countries, but require policy interventions in low-income and middle-income countries.
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BibTeX
@article{zhou2026obesity,
title = {{Obesity rise plateaus in developed nations and accelerates in developing nations}},
author = {Bin Zhou and Nowell H Phelps and Agnese Galeazzi and Olivia N O'Driscoll and James E. Bennett and Lakshya Jain and Yse D'Ailhaud De Brisis and Ana Barradas‐Pires and Fulvio Deo and Gretchen A Stevens and Vasilis Kontis and Christopher Paciorek and Rodrigo Martin Carrillo-Larco and Anu Mishra and 范晔峰 and Andrea Rodriguez‐Martinez and Vishwa Nath and Archie W. Rayner and Annalise Zouein and Natalie R. Evans and Jennifer L. Baker and Günther Fink and Maroje Sorić and Carlos Alberto Aguilar-Salinas and Ranjit Mohan Anjana and Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta and Pascal Bovet and Goodarz Danaei and Kairat Davletov and Shubash Ganapathy and Edward W. Gregg and Nayu Ikeda and André Pascal Kengne and Young‐Ho Khang and Kamlesh K. Khunti and Tiina K. Laatikainen and Avula Laxmaiah and Lee‐Ling Lim and H Y Lin and J Mbanya and J. Jaime Miranda and Anja Schienkiewitz and Sylvain Sebert and Namuna Shrestha and Yi Song and Adrián Soto-Mota and Gregor Starc and L L Wang and Novie O. Younger-Coleman and Francesco Zaccardi and Julie Aarestrup and Leandra Abarca-Gómez and Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari and Ziad Abdeen and Shynar Abdrakhmanova and Suhaila Abdul Ghaffar and Hanan F. Abdul Rahim and Zulfiya Abdurahmnova and Niveen M. Abu-Rmeileh and Jamila Abubakar Garba},
journal = {Nature},
year = {2026},
month = may,
doi = {10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Obesity rise plateaus in developed nations and accelerates in developing nations
AU - Bin Zhou
AU - Nowell H Phelps
AU - Agnese Galeazzi
AU - Olivia N O'Driscoll
AU - James E. Bennett
AU - Lakshya Jain
AU - Yse D'Ailhaud De Brisis
AU - Ana Barradas‐Pires
AU - Fulvio Deo
AU - Gretchen A Stevens
AU - Vasilis Kontis
AU - Christopher Paciorek
AU - Rodrigo Martin Carrillo-Larco
AU - Anu Mishra
AU - 范晔峰
AU - Andrea Rodriguez‐Martinez
AU - Vishwa Nath
AU - Archie W. Rayner
AU - Annalise Zouein
AU - Natalie R. Evans
AU - Jennifer L. Baker
AU - Günther Fink
AU - Maroje Sorić
AU - Carlos Alberto Aguilar-Salinas
AU - Ranjit Mohan Anjana
AU - Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta
AU - Pascal Bovet
AU - Goodarz Danaei
AU - Kairat Davletov
AU - Shubash Ganapathy
AU - Edward W. Gregg
AU - Nayu Ikeda
AU - André Pascal Kengne
AU - Young‐Ho Khang
AU - Kamlesh K. Khunti
AU - Tiina K. Laatikainen
AU - Avula Laxmaiah
AU - Lee‐Ling Lim
AU - H Y Lin
AU - J Mbanya
AU - J. Jaime Miranda
AU - Anja Schienkiewitz
AU - Sylvain Sebert
AU - Namuna Shrestha
AU - Yi Song
AU - Adrián Soto-Mota
AU - Gregor Starc
AU - L L Wang
AU - Novie O. Younger-Coleman
AU - Francesco Zaccardi
AU - Julie Aarestrup
AU - Leandra Abarca-Gómez
AU - Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari
AU - Ziad Abdeen
AU - Shynar Abdrakhmanova
AU - Suhaila Abdul Ghaffar
AU - Hanan F. Abdul Rahim
AU - Zulfiya Abdurahmnova
AU - Niveen M. Abu-Rmeileh
AU - Jamila Abubakar Garba
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/05/13
JO - Nature
DO - 10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10383-0
AB - and lacks a granular and systematic analysis of its dynamics. We used 4,050 population-based studies with measured height and weight data on 232 million participants to assess the worldwide dynamics of obesity from 1980 to 2024. The rise in obesity decelerated in school-aged children and adolescents throughout the 1990s in many high-income countries, and subsequently plateaued in most at age-standardized prevalences spanning 20 percentage points, from 3-4% for girls in Japan, Denmark and France to 23% for boys in the USA. There were indications of a small decline in obesity in children and adolescents in some high-income western countries (for example, Italy, Portugal and France) since the 2000s. Similar trends were seen in some countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In adults, the rise in obesity slowed down in high-income western countries about a decade after children, followed by a plateau or possibly a small reversal of the rise in some countries (for example, Spain). In most low-income and middle-income countries, the annual absolute change in prevalence has remained stable or increased over time, even though prevalence has surpassed that of high-income countries. These highly varied dynamics suggest that the social, economic and technological trends that influence the availability, affordability and use of different foods may have helped control the rise in obesity in high-income countries, but require policy interventions in low-income and middle-income countries.
SN - 0028-0836
SN - 1476-4687
ER -