A Multi-Model Assessment of the Air Quality and Health Impacts of U.S. Energy Decarbonization.
11 affiliations
- 1School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey08544, United States.
- 2Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey08544, United States.
- 3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, State College, Pennsylvania16802, United States.
- 4Watershed, San Francisco, California94103, United States.
- 5Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts02139, United States.
- 6Evolved Energy Research, San Diego, California92101, United States.
- 7Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland20742, United States.
- 8Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey08544, United States.
- 9Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) , Palo Alto, California94304, United States.
- 10Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin53726, United States.
- 11Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire03755, United States.
Abstract
Net-zero transitions are expected to reduce ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and the associated mortality burden. The magnitude and distribution of these health effects are substantially affected by energy technology choices and the resulting precursor emissions that contribute to ambient PM2.5. On the basis of a multi-model analysis using three leading energy system models for the United States (US-REGEN, GCAM-USA, and REPEAT), we demonstrate that a net-zero transition yields robust nationwide reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations and associated mortality. Under the net-zero scenarios, national PM2.5-attributable mortality rates in 2050 declined by 28-73% compared to 2017 across the three models. This result confirms substantial health benefits from reducing energy-sector pollution, despite concurrent population growth and aging trends that place upward pressure on mortality. Differences across the models result from how CO2 mitigation efforts are allocated across sectors and associated energy technology choices. For instance, the scale of carbon dioxide removal deployment in 2050 varies by a factor of three across the net-zero scenarios developed by the three models, influencing the amount of fossil fuel use that remains in a deeply decarbonized future and, consequently, the precursor emissions contributing to ambient PM2.5. By exploring sensitivity analyses that vary the projected emissions from non-energy activities such as wildfires, we also find that potential future increases in non-energy emissions can offset energy-sector health benefits.
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BibTeX
@article{shiwang2026multimodel,
title = {{A Multi-Model Assessment of the Air Quality and Health Impacts of U.S. Energy Decarbonization.}},
author = {Jinyu Shiwang and Wei Peng and John Bistline and Jamil Farbes and Xinyuan Huang and Gokul Iyer and Jesse D Jenkins and Eladio Knipping and Nicholas Mailloux and Erin Mayfield and Aranya Venkatesh and Alicia Zhao and Qianru Zhu},
journal = {Environmental science \& technology},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6c02914},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42916445},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A Multi-Model Assessment of the Air Quality and Health Impacts of U.S. Energy Decarbonization.
AU - Jinyu Shiwang
AU - Wei Peng
AU - John Bistline
AU - Jamil Farbes
AU - Xinyuan Huang
AU - Gokul Iyer
AU - Jesse D Jenkins
AU - Eladio Knipping
AU - Nicholas Mailloux
AU - Erin Mayfield
AU - Aranya Venkatesh
AU - Alicia Zhao
AU - Qianru Zhu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/01
JO - Environmental science & technology
DO - 10.1021/acs.est.6c02914
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42916445
AB - Net-zero transitions are expected to reduce ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and the associated mortality burden. The magnitude and distribution of these health effects are substantially affected by energy technology choices and the resulting precursor emissions that contribute to ambient PM2.5. On the basis of a multi-model analysis using three leading energy system models for the United States (US-REGEN, GCAM-USA, and REPEAT), we demonstrate that a net-zero transition yields robust nationwide reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations and associated mortality. Under the net-zero scenarios, national PM2.5-attributable mortality rates in 2050 declined by 28-73% compared to 2017 across the three models. This result confirms substantial health benefits from reducing energy-sector pollution, despite concurrent population growth and aging trends that place upward pressure on mortality. Differences across the models result from how CO2 mitigation efforts are allocated across sectors and associated energy technology choices. For instance, the scale of carbon dioxide removal deployment in 2050 varies by a factor of three across the net-zero scenarios developed by the three models, influencing the amount of fossil fuel use that remains in a deeply decarbonized future and, consequently, the precursor emissions contributing to ambient PM2.5. By exploring sensitivity analyses that vary the projected emissions from non-energy activities such as wildfires, we also find that potential future increases in non-energy emissions can offset energy-sector health benefits.
SN - 0013-936X
SN - 1520-5851
ER -